Disney-Marvel's Fantastic Four and the Business of Movies

In May of 2002, Columbia Pictures and Marvel Enterprises released Sam Raimi's Spider-Man. It made a lot of money and kicked off the Marvel Cinematic Universe. They had a good run, and made a whole lot of money.

Since Disney took over, they seem to have forgotten how to tell stories. They continued for a while, and then fired the people who oversaw the rise of The MCU. Disney Marvel has released 2 Marvel movies this year, and both lost money. They have number three queued up, and things are not looking good for that movie.

Let's start out with an article from Forbes. ‘Fantastic Four: First Steps’ Box Office Projections Far Below ‘Superman’ Opening

Since I've mostly lost interest in what Disney Marvel has produced in the way of movies, I am more interested in the business part of the movie business. It is supposed to be a business after all. (It isn't "Show Friends.")

While The Fantastic Four: First Steps exact budget number hasn’t been released, Variety reported that the film cost above $200 million to make before P&A.

Disney is famous for understating the cost of their movies, and the entertainment trades usually just take them at their word, but Forbes is diligent about the business. If a movie is produced in the UK, or in any one of several US states, if they want their Movie Production Tax Credit, they have to file very detailed reports about the actual budgets. In the case of The Fantastic Four: First Steps we won't see any of those reports (if they exist) before the end of this year, or the start of next year.

So let's just assume that the $200 million number is correct for the cost of production. Then there comes the Prints and Advertising budget. This includes the obvious stuff, like trailers, ads, expenses for getting the actors to network interviews. The P&A budget also includes the cost of having the movie translated into other languages for international exhibition. It isn't uncommon for movie studios to spend half of the production budget on P&A. Disney Marvel often spends much more than that. Since I have erased ads (mostly from my life) I don't know how much this has been pushed, but I think it is fair to assume $150 million in advertising, etc.

So Disney Marvel is all in on this movie to the tune of $350 million.

Now movie studios don't receive 100% of the box office. Strange as it may seem theaters actually want to make money. That is called rentals, and while the actual amount that studios get is a bit complicated, the general rule is that studios get about half of the global box office take. A bit more than half in North America, a bit less in Europe, South America, and most of Asia, and much less than half in China.

So this movie needs to make $700 million at a minimum at the global box office just to break even for Disney Marvel. Probably more than that. So they might break even, but I doubt it.

Now Disney will also pay themselves $100 million for showing The Fantastic Four: First Steps on Disney+ and/or Hulu. That is smoke and mirrors. If you take $20 out of your wallet, and put it in you pocket, you don't have $20 more than you had before you started. Disney would count that as 20 bucks paid to the movie by "someone."

So the hat tip for this goes to Az at HeelVsBabyface and his video Fantastic Four Box Office Projections Spell [Dr] DOOM for the Movie!!