Hurricane IDA - Dangerous Category 4 Hurricane

The storm strengthened overnight from Category 2, with winds of 105 MPH to Category 4, with maximum sustained winds of 150 MPH. Hurricane IDA

The position of the storm at 1200 Universal Coordinated Time (UTC) was 50 miles SW of the mouth of the Mississippi River, and 100 miles SE of Houma, Louisiana. Houma is approximately 40 miles SW of New Orleans.

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 89.6 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight and early Monday, followed by a slower northward motion on Monday afternoon. A northeastward turn is forecast by Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will make landfall along the coast of southeastern Louisiana within the hurricane warning area late this morning or early this afternoon. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of Louisiana and western Mississippi on Monday and Monday night.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Ida is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast, and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall along the Louisiana coast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall.

As for the strengthing overnight, central atmospheric pressure in the storm dropped from 976 millibars last night, to 933 millibars this morning.

Storm surge in the New Orleans/Lake Pontchartrain area is expected to be severe, and deadly. The forecast on storm surge includes the following.

Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...12-16 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...8-12 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake Borgne...8-12 ft

This is the risk that people ignored in Katrina (more in Mississippi than Louisiana). Buildings had survived Category 1 or 2 storms in the past, so people assumed they would survive a Category 5. (Katrina was expected to make landfall as Cat 5.) Buildings and people got washed away. I expect people to ignore this risk again. They are people.

The satellite imagery captured as a GIF below (courtesy of NASA), is also thru 1200 UTC. It shows a storm with awesome beauty. Or maybe an awful beauty. (See what James Joyce said about aesthetic arrest, and the secret cause in his novel A Portrait of the Artist as a Young Man.) A well-defined eyewall is always the sign of a very efficient heat engine, driving a very strong storm. (Click on the image for a larger view.) It really does look like an artist's interpretation of a hurricane.

Landfall is expected late morning or early afternoon.