Batteries for Energy Storage? It Doesn't Add Up

Math can be hard, but it isn't that hard. And this is fairly simple math. Elon’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Battery Math

Tesla's "Master Plan" for weather-dependent renewables will require 960 years of Gigafactory battery output.

This is a story about what happens when a culture decides that math is not important.

In 2007, I interviewed Vaclav Smil by email. I asked the Canadian polymath and prolific author a simple question: why are so many people so easily duped when it comes to discussions about energy and power?

He replied: “There has never been such a depth of scientific illiteracy and basic innumeracy as we see today. Without any physical, chemical, and biological fundamentals, and with equally poor understanding of basic economic forces, it is no wonder that people will believe anything.”

The article goes on to detail how the use of lithium ion batteries for energy storage of "green" — that is unreliable — energy does not compute. That doesn't even consider the environmental devastation from lithium mining in South America, and nickel mining in Indonesia. It certainly doesn't take into account the slave labor being used to mine cobalt in Africa. Is slave labor being using in China to assemble batteries?

Then there are assumptions about availability of raw materials, such as cobalt or its replacement. Copper is not a abundant as most people assume. Then there is the question of whether or not there are enough linemen to upgrade the power grid in the time frame discussed. (How many electrical distribution workers do you know?) As for costs, inflation is NOT added to any of the calculations.

Someone at Tesla might think about investing in a calculator. Heck, I’m in Austin. I’ll lend them mine.

And believing a company like Tesla when they tell you that they can solve all of your problems, just trust them and give them all of your money is insane.