15 November 2020

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statisitics - COVID-19 Edition

Because just reporting facts is such a 19th Century concept. As U.S. sees record COVID hospitalizations, it's unclear how many strictly involve virus

The difference is hospitalizations "with COVID" versus "due to COVID." What a major difference that is.

Admitted 'for' COVID versus 'with' COVID

Yet the raw numbers of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 infections may obscure more than they reveal, conflating patients hospitalized explicitly because of a coronavirus infection with those who simply tested positive for the virus while hospitalized for something else.

It is my understanding that if you go into the hospital you are tested for COVID. If it is an antigen test, then that only means that you had it at some point. Or maybe even that you only had a related Coronavirus.

Most states don't publish the data of the for/with distinction. North Dakota is a notable exception.

Notably, North Dakota's hospitalization numbers are striking: The state on Wednesday recorded 411 current patients statewide who had tested positive for COVID-19, but only 254 of them — about 60%— were hospitalized "due to" the coronavirus.

It is not known, of course, if those numbers can be extrapolated nationwide, but if North Dakota's with/due-to ratio were comparable to the rest of the country, then the United States would actually have about 37,200 patients hospitalized explicitly due to COVID, significantly less than recent news reports would suggest.

But why publish statistics that make it look like the infection-rate is actually more under control? Who does that help?

2 comments:

  1. My inner cynic thinks TPTB want to keep yo-yo'ing the numbers because they know most people are not doing independent research and tracking their own archive of the numbers and phony promises over the past nine months. Making up stats to appear as thought the case/fatality rates are improving, then "suddenly" getting much worse, makes it easier to alarm people who are taking their cue from the lamestream media, wear down their optimism and resolve, and keep them susceptible to the daily panic porn -- hence, easier to manipulate. It cannot be about the science and sound medical policy.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is pretty much how I feel.

      And it is not hard to make the sheep afraid.

      Except for the inversion of Conservative/Progressive, this could have been about 2020.
      https://youtu.be/YqRgwoe668M

      Delete

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