Never Attribute to Malice What Can Be Explained By Stupidity

And how much stupidity do you think there might be in the Russian Gas Industry? More than its fair share, that's for damn sure. Nordstream | The LawDog Files

So there has been much talk of what happened to Nordstream's two pipelines. There were apparently explosions. Now it turns out that LawDog actually knows a little something about gas pipes running under salt water, pressurized at 8 to 10 atmospheres, or under 330 to 360 of water, that is not moving product

In my experience when anything involving energy-industry hydrocarbons explodes … well, sabotage isn’t the first thing that comes to mind. And honestly, when it comes to a pipeline running natural gas under Russian (non)maintenance, an explosion means that it’s Tuesday. Or Friday. Or another day of the week ending in “y”.

Then the fact that the explosions were 17 hours apart is an issue.

“But, LawDog,” I hear you say, “It was multiple explosions!”

Yes, 17 hours apart. No military is going to arrange for two pipes in the same general area to be destroyed 17 hours apart. Not without some Spec Ops guy having a fit of apoplexy. One pipe goes up in a busy shipping lane, in a busy sea, and everyone takes notice. Then you wait 17 hours to do the second — with 17 hours for people to show up and catch you running dirty? Nah, not buying it.

So if not malice, what? Hydrate plugs are things that would form under those circumstances, and the resulting ruptures of the pipelines look like what was pictured.

The presence of solid hydrates in a pipeline can cause flow issues (causing cracks), destabilize the pipe itself (more cracks), and cause fires (bad. Very Bad), but the big issue (pun intended) is when you form enough hydrates that it blocks the pipe entirely (see: Hydrate plug, above).

A hydrate plug is one massive pain in the tuchkiss to remove, and removal of said hydrate plugs is not a task to be undertaken by idiots, rank amateurs, morons, the terminally unlucky, or stupid people.

So what are the chances, that after months of not moving product, they discovered a hydrate plug, and instead of trying to work with the Germans or whoever to remove the problem from both ends (the recommended action) they tried to just fix the problem?

Click thru for a discussion of all the ways that Gazprom could have managed to have that pipeline blow up, as well as a discussion of how they did get a similar pipeline to blow up in 2000. (That incident sounds like it was more spectacular than this one.)

It’s hundreds of millions of cubic metres of extremely flammable — nay, explosive — gaseous hydrocarbons being transported by Russians, and subject to Russian maintenance. And I’m here to tell you — Russian maintenance under the current oligarchy system isn’t any better than it was under the Soviet system.

Evil people only get up to evil deeds once in a while. Stupid is everywhere, everyday. And Gazprom has proven - see the issue from 2000 - that they do in fact have more than their fair share. And the stupid, it hurts. Add in a lot of really explosive chemicals, and you should stand way back.